Rice, a significant export commodity for Thailand, is increasingly vulnerable to potential higher tariffs imposed by the United States, driven by the protectionist stance of the current U.S. administration.

This development is particularly concerning as Thailand ranks among the countries with substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., which has been a key focus of U.S. trade policy under the 'America First' agenda.

According to experts, Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. has shown a consistent upward trend over the past decade, escalating from $29.04 billion in 2023 to an anticipated $35.42 billion in 2024. This positions Thailand as the 11th largest country in terms of trade surplus with the U.S. Furthermore, Thailand’s rice exports to the U.S. total approximately 830,000 tonnes annually, with jasmine and fragrant rice comprising about 85% of this volume, equivalent to around 705,500 tonnes.

The potential tariff barriers pose a significant threat not only to rice exports but also to other Thai products such as electrical appliances, automotive parts, industrial goods, and select minerals.

Industry experts have expressed concern that the geopolitical strategies employed by superpowers to secure market dominance could further complicate trade dynamics, influencing both security and economic policies at regional and bilateral levels.

These factors could lead to fluctuations in agricultural trade and energy prices, introducing additional uncertainties for exporters.

Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association indicates that Thailand's rice exports to the U.S. reached 848,449 tonnes last year, reflecting a 20.1% increase compared to the previous year.

This surge in exports was valued at approximately 28.02 billion baht, marking an increase of 27.8% year on year.

The U.S. market ranks as Thailand’s third-largest for rice, following Indonesia and Iraq, while being the foremost destination for Thai jasmine rice.