Thailand is grappling with a structural imbalance in its natural gas sector, where years of infrastructure expansion now collide with slowing demand growth and falling domestic production, pushing energy costs higher for households and industry.

Energy planners expanded import terminals, pipelines and gas-fired power generation capacity over the past decade to secure supply and support economic growth.

However, softer electricity demand, rapid growth in renewable energy, and efficiency improvements have left parts of the system underutilized.

At the same time, output from domestic fields in the Gulf of Thailand has declined, increasing reliance on liquefied natural gas imports.

Exposure to volatile global LNG prices, particularly during periods of tight supply, has translated into higher generation costs and upward pressure on electricity tariffs.

Officials acknowledge the challenge of balancing long-term energy security with affordability.

Fixed costs tied to infrastructure investments must still be recovered, even when utilization rates fall short of projections.

Industry analysts note that this dynamic can lead to higher per-unit costs, as fewer kilowatt-hours are used to spread capital and operating expenses.

The government has reiterated its commitment to ensuring energy stability while accelerating the transition toward cleaner sources.

Policymakers are reviewing power development plans to better align capacity additions with demand trends and climate targets, including expanded solar, wind and regional power imports.

Business groups have called for greater transparency in tariff calculations and procurement strategies, arguing that predictable pricing is essential for competitiveness.

Consumer advocates have also urged measures to shield vulnerable households from sudden rate increases.

Thailand’s gas conundrum reflects a broader regional trend, as several Asian economies reassess fossil fuel investments made before the global surge in renewable deployment.

The outcome of Thailand’s policy recalibration will shape both its energy transition and its industrial cost base in the years ahead.