The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Thailand’s economy will expand by approximately two-point-one per cent in 2025, before decelerating to just one-point-six per cent in 2026. The figure reflects mounting headwinds at home and abroad, as the Fund’s staff team observed during a recent visit to Bangkok.

In its November 13 statement, the IMF noted that Thailand’s weak momentum, high household and corporate debt burdens and external pressures such as U.S. tariff risks mean authorities must weigh options carefully given constrained policy space.

The Bank of Thailand left its one-day repurchase rate at one-point-five per cent in October, after cutting by one hundred basis points since October 2024.

The assessment follows signs of slower activity in the latter half of 2025. The central bank had warned that growth may slip to around one-point-six per cent next year after a stronger first half.

Thailand’s exports are also under pressure from a strong currency and global trade friction, while its tourism-led recovery faces competition and softer demand.

The IMF urged a calibrated policy mix that supports demand, strengthens the balance sheet and opens new investment paths.

It particularly flagged the need to boost productivity, attract genuine foreign investment and address lingering structural challenges — including low household savings, elevated factory-sector indebtedness and an ageing workforce.

Thailand’s authorities responded by reaffirming their commitment to structural reforms, labour upskilling and digital transformation, while emphasising that the IMF projection is not a certainty but a challenge to act.

The country’s fiscal limits and reliance on external demand mean they must adopt smart, not only bold, policy moves.

The forecast underlines the urgency for Thailand to transition from interim recovery to a higher-growth model, leveraging its tourism rebound today into broader industrial upgrading for tomorrow.