Thailand’s central bank has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2026, warning that continued global conflict could expose the country to increasingly severe downside risks.

Policymakers indicated that while the domestic economy remains resilient, external pressures—particularly those linked to geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility—are weighing on the outlook.

Officials emphasised that if current conflicts persist or intensify, the range of potential negative outcomes could widen significantly, with no clear ceiling on worst-case scenarios.

The warning reflects heightened uncertainty in the global environment, where trade flows, commodity prices and investor sentiment remain sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Despite the downgraded forecast, Thailand’s economic fundamentals continue to show underlying strength, supported by tourism recovery, steady domestic demand and proactive policy management.

Authorities have reiterated their readiness to respond with appropriate monetary and fiscal measures to maintain stability.

The central bank’s assessment underscores the importance of vigilance in navigating external shocks, particularly in a region closely linked to global supply chains and energy markets.

Officials are continuing to monitor developments closely, with a focus on preserving financial stability and sustaining growth momentum.

The outlook highlights both the resilience of Thailand’s economy and the challenges posed by an uncertain global landscape, as policymakers balance caution with confidence in the country’s long-term prospects.