Thai Times

Covering the Thai Renaissance
Tuesday, May 13, 2025

IMF Predicts No Global Recession Amid Trade Tensions

Global economic growth to slow down due to trade tariff uncertainty, but no recession expected
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that despite the current trade tariff uncertainty being 'literally off the charts', there will not be a global recession.

Global share prices have dropped as trade tensions flared, and an 'erosion of trust' between countries has been warned about.

The IMF's forecast for the world economy includes notable markdowns in growth projections, but stops short of predicting a worldwide recession.

This comes as leaders and businesses respond to recent tariffs announced by the US President.

Global stock markets have plummeted following the announcement, with the FTSE 100 index still 4.6% lower than a month ago.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that global trade will fall this year due to these tariffs.

The Bank of England has stated that rising trade tensions from tariffs have contributed to an increase in the risk to global growth and financial stability.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its key interest rate owing to rising trade tensions.

The IMF managing director has called on all countries to 'redouble efforts to put their own houses in order' in response to the uncertainty, specifically urging Europe to cut down on restrictions on internal trade in services and deepen its single market.

China has been encouraged to increase its social safety net to reduce precautionary saving, while the US government needs to reduce its debt.
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