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IMF Forecasts Thailand’s GDP Growth at 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025
The IMF predicts moderate economic growth for Thailand, driven by tourism recovery, but concerns about low inflation and risks to stability remain.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Thailand's economy will grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, supported mainly by a rebound in the tourism industry.
According to the IMF’s '2024 Article IV Consultation with Thailand' report published on February 20, 2025, the kingdom's economic recovery is proceeding at a slower pace compared to other countries in the region.
In 2023, Thailand's economy expanded by 1.9%, and growth in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.3%, driven by an uptick in private consumption and tourism.
However, inflation has remained low, averaging just 0.4% annually in 2024, far below the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1 to 3%.
The subdued inflation rate has been influenced by factors such as lower global energy and food prices, along with domestic price controls and the winding down of pandemic-related fiscal support.
Thailand's current account balance improved significantly in 2023, reaching 1.4% of GDP, reversing the -3.5% deficit seen in 2022. This surplus has been supported by stronger tourism and export performance.
The IMF's forecast for 2024 and 2025 growth is based on the expectation that fiscal measures, such as additional cash transfers and a rebound in public investment, will support recovery.
The IMF also anticipates a continued boost from tourism and private consumption, with inflation expected to rise but remain within the target range in 2025.
Despite this positive outlook, the IMF outlined several risks to Thailand's economic stability.
These include global trade tensions, increased commodity price volatility, and tighter financial conditions.
On the domestic side, concerns include private sector debt and potential political instability, which could hinder economic growth and policy implementation.
According to the IMF’s '2024 Article IV Consultation with Thailand' report published on February 20, 2025, the kingdom's economic recovery is proceeding at a slower pace compared to other countries in the region.
In 2023, Thailand's economy expanded by 1.9%, and growth in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.3%, driven by an uptick in private consumption and tourism.
However, inflation has remained low, averaging just 0.4% annually in 2024, far below the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1 to 3%.
The subdued inflation rate has been influenced by factors such as lower global energy and food prices, along with domestic price controls and the winding down of pandemic-related fiscal support.
Thailand's current account balance improved significantly in 2023, reaching 1.4% of GDP, reversing the -3.5% deficit seen in 2022. This surplus has been supported by stronger tourism and export performance.
The IMF's forecast for 2024 and 2025 growth is based on the expectation that fiscal measures, such as additional cash transfers and a rebound in public investment, will support recovery.
The IMF also anticipates a continued boost from tourism and private consumption, with inflation expected to rise but remain within the target range in 2025.
Despite this positive outlook, the IMF outlined several risks to Thailand's economic stability.
These include global trade tensions, increased commodity price volatility, and tighter financial conditions.
On the domestic side, concerns include private sector debt and potential political instability, which could hinder economic growth and policy implementation.
