Kobsak Pootrakool, executive vice-president at Bangkok Bank Pcl, has shared a positive forecast for Thailand's economic landscape, projecting a growth rate of just under 3% for 2024.

Despite recent floods affecting late-year performance, he believes the economy is poised for steady expansion, expecting growth to exceed 3% by 2025.

Contributing to this optimism is the resurgence in tourism, with a steady monthly influx of approximately 4 million tourists, nearing pre-pandemic levels of 36 million annually.

Additionally, continued foreign direct investment (FDI) is set to bolster economic progress.

However, Kobsak cautions about three significant risks: the US election outcome, China’s unresolved economic issues, and Thailand’s household debt levels, which hover around 89-90%.

Notably, special-mention loans, including auto loans at 16%, and an uptick in foreclosed properties, highlight vulnerabilities.

He stresses the urgency of addressing household debt to ensure sustainable growth and avoid dampening the effectiveness of economic stimuli.

Recent interest-rate cuts, favorable for both the economy and borrowers, may not yield full benefits for another six to 12 months.

Bangkok Bank anticipates a bank loan growth rate of 3-4%, exceeding GDP growth, which is likely just below 3% for 2023.

Despite some domestic lending slowing in the business sector, international lending, particularly in large and consumer loans, continues to perform well, driven by robust demand in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, thereby supporting the bank's growth in foreign income.