Thailand's Economic Outlook Amidst Global Shifts in 2025
Impacts of Trump's Return and China's Economic Strategies on Thailand
In 2025, the global economic landscape is influenced by the resilience of the US economy, China's shift toward a stimulus approach, and renewed economic tensions under Donald Trump's presidency.
The US economy, while showing strength, is expected to slow down with projected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Concurrently, the IMF warns of slowed global growth due to potential trade barriers under Trump's administration.
Meanwhile, China has introduced a comprehensive stimulus package to combat economic slowdown and market decline.
In Thailand, GDP growth exceeded expectations at 3.0% in Q3, driven by public investment, although net exports presented mixed signals due to increased imports.
Looking forward, Thailand may face challenges from global trade tensions, particularly from US trade policies and Chinese market strategies.
To mitigate risks, the Bank of Thailand is likely to cut interest rates, while domestic investment strategies should focus on consumption and defensive sectors.
Recommended companies for investment include ADVANC, AOT, BCH, CPALL, and HMPRO.
_Dr. Piyasak Manason leads the Investment Strategy Department at InnovestX Securities._