Thailand's shrimp industry, a significant sector of the nation's aquaculture output, is grappling with a dual challenge of disease outbreaks and declining prices, resulting in an expected drop in production for 2024.

The Thai Shrimp Association has forecasted a 4% year-on-year decrease in shrimp production, estimating a yield of 270,000 tonnes, down from 280,000 tonnes in the previous year.

The root causes of this downturn are multifaceted.

Disease outbreaks, particularly the persistent issue of early mortality syndrome (EMS), have plagued local producers for over a decade.

In addition to health-related challenges, unstable weather conditions have further stressed shrimp farming operations, adversely affecting the quality of juvenile shrimps and overall farming conditions.

Ekapoj Yodpinit, president of the Thai Shrimp Association, remarked on the economic ripple effects being experienced, with reduced prices prompting many farmers to delay the introduction of new farming cycles.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in Thailand has acknowledged the critical state of shrimp farming and has pledged to prioritize solving these industry afflictions as part of the nation's agricultural agenda.

Central to the industry's recovery strategy is addressing the EMS issue.

Stakeholders within the shrimp farming community are urging the government to allocate significant resources for combating this disease, suggesting a budget of 2 billion baht could stave off potential losses exceeding 600 billion baht.

The intended goal is to elevate Thai shrimp production to 400,000 tonnes over the next three years, thereby restoring this vital sector to economic health.

Geographically, Thailand's shrimp production is concentrated in several regions.

The upper southern region is the leading production area, contributing 37% of total output.

It is followed by the lower southern region along the Andaman coast at 23%, the eastern region at 20%, and both the central and lower southern Gulf regions at 10% each.

On a global scale, shrimp production is set to record a 4% decrease this year, reaching approximately 5.04 million tonnes.

This decline mirrors trends seen in other major shrimp-producing countries, including China, Ecuador, India, and Vietnam.

From January to October, Thailand exported 109,048 tonnes of shrimp valued at 34 billion baht, indicating a slight drop of 1% in volume and 6% in value compared to the previous year.

The outlook for 2024 remains cautiously optimistic, with Thailand expecting to export between 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes of shrimp, potentially generating 40 billion baht in revenue, mirroring figures from 2023.

However, the persistence of EMS could stagnate growth prospects in 2025.

The primary international markets for Thai shrimp include Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Thai shrimp exporters face stiff competition, particularly from Ecuador, the world's largest shrimp producer.

Ecuador's production capacity reaches 1.3-1.4 million tonnes annually and accounts for about 20% of its GDP. According to Mr. Ekapoj, any instances of price undercutting on the global stage could adversely impact Thailand's ability to compete in these crucial export markets.