The Thai baht has remained at the center of investor and business attention as it continues to appreciate, gaining more than 5% since the start of the year.

This persistent strengthening has pushed Thailand’s foreign reserves to their highest level on record, sparking speculation that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has intervened to restrain the currency’s rapid ascent.

Sanguan Jungsakul, senior director for money and capital markets at Krungthai Bank, explained that the baht’s rise has been largely influenced by external factors, particularly the prolonged weakness of the US dollar since early 2025.

He noted that the baht’s performance mirrors regional currencies, with the South Korean won and the Taiwan dollar strengthening by 6–8%.

This trend prompted the BOT to act, buying dollars and selling baht to prevent excessive appreciation.

Additional momentum has come from rising gold prices, which have further supported the baht and reinforced expectations that the BOT will continue close currency management.

As a result, Thailand’s reserves have grown sharply, surpassing 280 billion US dollars.

“The situation today resembles 2021, but with one major difference: the US Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates to zero as it did then,” Sanguan said.

“Still, the dollar’s weakness continues, and many countries, including Malaysia and Indonesia, are also reporting record-high reserves, just like Thailand.”

Analysts forecast that the baht could appreciate further in the coming months, potentially reaching 31.50 per US dollar or dipping below 32 by year-end.

In the short term, it is expected to trade within a range of 32.20 to 32.30.

Sanguan emphasized that the BOT’s interventions are designed to curb volatility.

“The steady rise in foreign reserves reflects efforts to reduce fluctuations in the baht, ensuring the real economy can adjust and manage risks more effectively.”

According to the Kasikorn Research Centre, Thailand’s reserves reached 289.68 billion US dollars as of August 22.

Head of research Kanjana Chokpaisansilp identified three primary drivers: BOT currency management, mark-to-market gains from rising global asset prices—especially gold—and a positive balance of payments supported by strong exports, stable imports, and net capital inflows.

The share of gold in total reserves has increased to 9.5%, up from just 2.6% in 2005.

Strong reserves are widely viewed as a critical safeguard for Thailand’s economy, bolstering resilience against external shocks and sustaining investor confidence.

By international standards, the reserves are well above benchmarks: they cover 2.7 times the country’s short-term external debt and provide 9.5 months of import coverage.

The baht is currently trading at 32.28 per US dollar, its highest point this year, having gained 5.6% since January.

Wachirawat Banchuen, senior strategist at SCB Financial Markets, said reserve accumulation has been fueled both by asset revaluations and central bank intervention.

The stronger euro has lifted the value of euro-denominated holdings, while the BOT has acted to slow baht appreciation around 32.25 per dollar, a level that drew heavy dollar-buying interest.

“Reserve accumulation is not just about slowing the baht’s rise but also about reducing volatility,” Wachirawat explained.

Analysts cautioned that while record reserves strengthen Thailand’s external position, they may also attract scrutiny from Washington, where authorities could view the measures as currency manipulation.

Nonetheless, Thailand’s persistent current account surplus, supported by robust exports, continues to reinforce the baht’s upward momentum.