Thailand’s rice export sector, valued at an estimated four billion dollars annually, is facing mounting pressure as a strengthening baht erodes price competitiveness in key overseas markets.

Exporters and industry representatives have warned that the recent rally in the Thai currency could weigh on shipment volumes in the months ahead, even as global demand for rice remains firm.

The baht’s appreciation has made Thai rice more expensive compared with supplies from regional competitors whose currencies have been comparatively stable or weaker.

Traders say this has already narrowed margins for exporters operating under forward contracts and heightened sensitivity among price-conscious buyers in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia.

Thailand remains one of the world’s leading rice exporters, with fragrant jasmine rice and white rice varieties forming the backbone of its overseas sales.

Industry groups have indicated that while orders continue to flow, buyers are increasingly negotiating prices and exploring alternative origins to manage costs.

Government officials have emphasised that Thailand’s rice industry retains strong structural advantages, including high product quality, established trade relationships and efficient logistics.

Authorities are closely monitoring currency movements and global commodity trends, while maintaining engagement with exporters to ensure stability across the agricultural supply chain.

Analysts note that exchange rate volatility has become a more prominent factor in agricultural trade as global financial markets react to shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical developments.

A persistently firm baht could trim export earnings in local currency terms, though stronger global prices or improved productivity may offset some of the impact.

The outlook for the remainder of the year will depend largely on currency dynamics and demand conditions in major importing countries.

For now, exporters are balancing cautious optimism about global consumption with vigilance over exchange rate movements that could shape the trajectory of Thailand’s multi-billion-dollar rice trade.