Thailand Posts Strongest Quarterly Growth in Four Years as Government Lifts 2026 Forecast
Fourth-quarter rebound driven by domestic demand and investment offsets tourism softness, sending markets higher
Thailand’s economy accelerated more strongly than expected in the final quarter of 2025, reinforcing signs of a steady recovery and prompting the government to upgrade its growth outlook for 2026.
Gross domestic product expanded 2.5 percent year on year in the October-to-December quarter, according to data released by the National Economic and Social Development Council.
The figure marked a sharp improvement from 1.2 percent growth in the previous quarter and exceeded consensus forecasts of around 1.0 percent.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.9 percent, the fastest pace in four years.
That represented a decisive rebound from a 0.3 percent contraction in the July-to-September period and significantly outpaced market expectations for modest growth.
Officials attributed the stronger performance to resilient domestic demand, rising private consumption and an uptick in both private and public investment.
Government spending and capital outlays provided additional support, helping to counter lingering weakness in parts of the external sector, including a softer tourism environment.
Thailand’s benchmark SET Index climbed more than 1 percent following the release of the data, reaching its highest level since December 2024, as investors responded positively to the stronger growth momentum.
For the full year 2025, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 2.4 percent.
Building on the improved fourth-quarter performance, the economic planning agency revised its 2026 growth forecast upward to a range of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, from an earlier projection of 1.2 percent to 2.2 percent.
The upgraded outlook reflects expectations of continued expansion in private consumption and investment, sustained public expenditure and a gradual normalization in tourism and export activity.
While external uncertainties remain, policymakers expressed confidence that balanced domestic drivers and structural investment initiatives will help maintain economic stability in the year ahead.
Gross domestic product expanded 2.5 percent year on year in the October-to-December quarter, according to data released by the National Economic and Social Development Council.
The figure marked a sharp improvement from 1.2 percent growth in the previous quarter and exceeded consensus forecasts of around 1.0 percent.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.9 percent, the fastest pace in four years.
That represented a decisive rebound from a 0.3 percent contraction in the July-to-September period and significantly outpaced market expectations for modest growth.
Officials attributed the stronger performance to resilient domestic demand, rising private consumption and an uptick in both private and public investment.
Government spending and capital outlays provided additional support, helping to counter lingering weakness in parts of the external sector, including a softer tourism environment.
Thailand’s benchmark SET Index climbed more than 1 percent following the release of the data, reaching its highest level since December 2024, as investors responded positively to the stronger growth momentum.
For the full year 2025, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 2.4 percent.
Building on the improved fourth-quarter performance, the economic planning agency revised its 2026 growth forecast upward to a range of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, from an earlier projection of 1.2 percent to 2.2 percent.
The upgraded outlook reflects expectations of continued expansion in private consumption and investment, sustained public expenditure and a gradual normalization in tourism and export activity.
While external uncertainties remain, policymakers expressed confidence that balanced domestic drivers and structural investment initiatives will help maintain economic stability in the year ahead.
