Thailand’s Conservative Establishment Reasserts Control as Shinawatra Political Era Fades
After years of upheaval, a resurgent royalist coalition secures dominance while Thaksin Shinawatra’s influence wanes from behind bars
Thailand’s political landscape has entered a decisive new chapter as the conservative establishment consolidates power following a general election that delivered the worst performance in history for the once-dominant Pheu Thai party.
The result marks a dramatic reversal for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former owner of Manchester City Football Club who reshaped Thai politics after first taking office in 2001. For more than two decades, parties aligned with him won successive elections, propelled by sweeping populist policies that expanded healthcare access and boosted rural incomes, particularly in Thailand’s northeast.
Now, Thaksin is serving a prison sentence and his political dynasty faces its sharpest decline.
The election saw conservative forces regain firm control for the first time in a quarter of a century.
Analysts say the outcome could usher in a period of greater stability in a country that has endured repeated military interventions, street protests and rapid changes in leadership over the past twenty years.
Thailand has seen three prime ministers in as many years, reflecting prolonged institutional turbulence rooted in a struggle between elected populist movements and entrenched elite networks.
Thaksin’s ascent in the early 2000s challenged a powerful alliance of military, royalist and business interests.
His opponents accused him of corruption and overreach, while his supporters credited him with transforming the social contract.
In 2006, he was removed in a military coup and later convicted on graft-related charges.
He spent fifteen years abroad before returning to Thailand in 2023.
Upon his return, he was sentenced to eight years in prison, a term subsequently reduced to one year following a royal pardon.
After initially serving time in hospital detention, a court ordered him to complete his sentence in prison.
Thaksin has denied allegations that his return was tied to any political bargain.
His comeback coincided with the rise of a progressive reform movement that captured public imagination by advocating institutional change and challenging long-standing political taboos.
The reformist bloc won the largest share of votes in the 2023 election.
However, Pheu Thai later formed a governing coalition with former conservative rivals, sidelining the progressive movement to the opposition.
The decision alienated sections of its traditional support base.
The erosion of that support became clear in the most recent vote, where Pheu Thai failed to secure seats even in Chiang Mai, Thaksin’s birthplace and longstanding stronghold.
Political observers say nostalgia alone no longer guarantees loyalty, particularly among younger voters seeking structural reform rather than redistributive populism.
Further damage came when Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who had served as prime minister, was removed from office last year over an ethics breach linked to a leaked phone conversation concerning border tensions with Cambodia.
The ruling deepened perceptions of political vulnerability within the Shinawatra camp.
The new government will be led by Anutin Charnvirakul, head of the Bhumjaithai Party, which successfully expanded its base amid rising nationalism, economic pressures and regional tensions.
Anutin, known internationally for legalising cannabis during his tenure as health minister, now leads a coalition in which Pheu Thai serves as a junior partner.
While some analysts anticipate greater administrative continuity under the new alignment, others caution that political contestation is far from over.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission has moved against dozens of progressive lawmakers over attempts to amend Thailand’s lese majeste legislation, with potential lifetime bans pending judicial review.
Despite the setbacks, few in Thailand’s volatile political arena are ever entirely absent for long.
Thaksin could become eligible for parole in May, and members of his extended family remain active in politics.
Yet observers agree that the once-dominant Shinawatra brand no longer carries the decisive force it once commanded, as Thailand’s conservative establishment demonstrates its enduring capacity to withstand successive political challenges.
The result marks a dramatic reversal for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former owner of Manchester City Football Club who reshaped Thai politics after first taking office in 2001. For more than two decades, parties aligned with him won successive elections, propelled by sweeping populist policies that expanded healthcare access and boosted rural incomes, particularly in Thailand’s northeast.
Now, Thaksin is serving a prison sentence and his political dynasty faces its sharpest decline.
The election saw conservative forces regain firm control for the first time in a quarter of a century.
Analysts say the outcome could usher in a period of greater stability in a country that has endured repeated military interventions, street protests and rapid changes in leadership over the past twenty years.
Thailand has seen three prime ministers in as many years, reflecting prolonged institutional turbulence rooted in a struggle between elected populist movements and entrenched elite networks.
Thaksin’s ascent in the early 2000s challenged a powerful alliance of military, royalist and business interests.
His opponents accused him of corruption and overreach, while his supporters credited him with transforming the social contract.
In 2006, he was removed in a military coup and later convicted on graft-related charges.
He spent fifteen years abroad before returning to Thailand in 2023.
Upon his return, he was sentenced to eight years in prison, a term subsequently reduced to one year following a royal pardon.
After initially serving time in hospital detention, a court ordered him to complete his sentence in prison.
Thaksin has denied allegations that his return was tied to any political bargain.
His comeback coincided with the rise of a progressive reform movement that captured public imagination by advocating institutional change and challenging long-standing political taboos.
The reformist bloc won the largest share of votes in the 2023 election.
However, Pheu Thai later formed a governing coalition with former conservative rivals, sidelining the progressive movement to the opposition.
The decision alienated sections of its traditional support base.
The erosion of that support became clear in the most recent vote, where Pheu Thai failed to secure seats even in Chiang Mai, Thaksin’s birthplace and longstanding stronghold.
Political observers say nostalgia alone no longer guarantees loyalty, particularly among younger voters seeking structural reform rather than redistributive populism.
Further damage came when Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who had served as prime minister, was removed from office last year over an ethics breach linked to a leaked phone conversation concerning border tensions with Cambodia.
The ruling deepened perceptions of political vulnerability within the Shinawatra camp.
The new government will be led by Anutin Charnvirakul, head of the Bhumjaithai Party, which successfully expanded its base amid rising nationalism, economic pressures and regional tensions.
Anutin, known internationally for legalising cannabis during his tenure as health minister, now leads a coalition in which Pheu Thai serves as a junior partner.
While some analysts anticipate greater administrative continuity under the new alignment, others caution that political contestation is far from over.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission has moved against dozens of progressive lawmakers over attempts to amend Thailand’s lese majeste legislation, with potential lifetime bans pending judicial review.
Despite the setbacks, few in Thailand’s volatile political arena are ever entirely absent for long.
Thaksin could become eligible for parole in May, and members of his extended family remain active in politics.
Yet observers agree that the once-dominant Shinawatra brand no longer carries the decisive force it once commanded, as Thailand’s conservative establishment demonstrates its enduring capacity to withstand successive political challenges.
