SCB EIC, the research centre of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), forecasts a soft economic landing for Thailand next year with a maintained 2024 growth rate of 2.5%.

However, the 2025 growth outlook has been downgraded from 2.9-3% to 2.6%.

Factors contributing to the revised forecast include structural and cyclical pressures, with household debt and a potential global recession posing significant risks.

Government stimulus measures like cash handouts are expected to boost GDP growth temporarily by 0.5-0.7 percentage points this year and potentially up to three points next year.

While stimulus packages might aid consumption, tourism, and agriculture sectors, they could also lead to increased costs in low-wage industries and challenges for the energy sector.

Long-term economic health remains a concern due to high household debt, political instability, and the need for industries to adapt to changes.

EIC warns of a possible hard landing with growth as low as 1.9% in a worst-case scenario.