The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released its findings from the 2025 Annual Consultation with Thailand, projecting economic growth of 2.2 percent this year, but cautioning that momentum is likely to ease to 1.9 percent in 2026. The assessment reflects a slowdown expected in the second half of 2025, after an export-led boost earlier in the year.

AMRO pointed out that the Thai economy — once buoyed by strong tourism and robust domestic demand — is now entering a transitional phase.

Soft global demand and shifting trade conditions have weighed on exports, while private investment remains cautious.

The report underscores structural challenges in sustaining growth, especially as long-term potential appears to be declining.

On inflation, AMRO expects it to remain muted, projecting headline inflation of just 0.5 percent for 2025 and 0.8 percent for 2026. This stable price environment, the report suggests, offers space for fiscal and monetary authorities to support the economy without stoking inflationary risk.

Crucially, AMRO calls on Thai policymakers to accelerate structural reforms in innovation, human capital, and infrastructure to lift the economy's growth potential.

Targeted fiscal support for vulnerable sectors, coupled with a medium-term plan to bring down the budget deficit, are also recommended to safeguard fiscal sustainability.

The consultation noted that, despite near-term headwinds, Thailand continues to attract foreign direct investment — a sign that investor confidence remains broadly intact for now.

But AMRO warns that maintaining that confidence over the next few years will depend heavily on substantive reforms and careful policy execution.

According to the report, if structural reforms are delayed or insufficient, Thailand risks entrenching a lower-growth equilibrium — endangering long-term productivity and competitiveness.