Thailand Maintains Trade Surplus with United States but Trade Deficit with China Widens as Export Risks Mount in 2026
Record export growth in 2025 bolsters ties with the U.S., while structural imbalances with China and tariff pressures cloud outlook for Thai exports next year
Thailand continued to record a substantial trade surplus with the United States in 2025, underlining strong demand for Thai goods in America even as broader challenges weighed on its overall external balance.
Data from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office show that Thailand shipped approximately seventy-two point five billion dollars worth of goods to the U.S., while imports stood at just over twenty-one billion dollars, generating a robust bilateral surplus for the full year.
This positive balance has been supported by brisk electronics and telecommunications exports, helping to sustain economic engagement between the two nations amid evolving global trade dynamics.
Despite this success in the U.S. market, Thailand’s trade relationship with China remained a source of structural tension in 2025. Exports to China reached roughly thirty-nine point seven billion dollars, but imports soared to about one hundred seven point six billion dollars, resulting in a large and persistent trade deficit.
Economists and government officials have highlighted the need to rebalance this relationship by shifting toward higher-value added exports to China and reducing dependency on imported intermediate and consumer goods.
Overall, Thailand recorded a modest trade deficit of around five point three billion dollars for 2025 as a whole, with imports slightly outpacing exports despite the record total export value of nearly three hundred forty billion dollars.
Growth in exports to key markets such as the U.S., European Union and ASEAN helped sustain momentum, but the strong pace of import growth, particularly from China, contributed to the negative balance.
Looking ahead to 2026, Thai authorities and analysts see significant risks that could temper export performance.
The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that total export value may either fall by up to three point one percent or rise by only about one point one percent, reflecting uncertainties including reciprocal tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of a relatively strong Thai baht on price competitiveness.
Officials have underscored the importance of enhancing product quality and moving up the value chain to strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to external pressures.
The contrasting trade outcomes with the United States and China encapsulate Thailand’s broader trade strategy in a complex global environment.
While solid performance in the U.S. market has reinforced economic ties and supported export growth, the persistent deficit with China and looming external headwinds underscore the need for adaptive policy responses and strategic diversification to sustain Thailand’s export-led growth trajectory.
Data from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office show that Thailand shipped approximately seventy-two point five billion dollars worth of goods to the U.S., while imports stood at just over twenty-one billion dollars, generating a robust bilateral surplus for the full year.
This positive balance has been supported by brisk electronics and telecommunications exports, helping to sustain economic engagement between the two nations amid evolving global trade dynamics.
Despite this success in the U.S. market, Thailand’s trade relationship with China remained a source of structural tension in 2025. Exports to China reached roughly thirty-nine point seven billion dollars, but imports soared to about one hundred seven point six billion dollars, resulting in a large and persistent trade deficit.
Economists and government officials have highlighted the need to rebalance this relationship by shifting toward higher-value added exports to China and reducing dependency on imported intermediate and consumer goods.
Overall, Thailand recorded a modest trade deficit of around five point three billion dollars for 2025 as a whole, with imports slightly outpacing exports despite the record total export value of nearly three hundred forty billion dollars.
Growth in exports to key markets such as the U.S., European Union and ASEAN helped sustain momentum, but the strong pace of import growth, particularly from China, contributed to the negative balance.
Looking ahead to 2026, Thai authorities and analysts see significant risks that could temper export performance.
The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that total export value may either fall by up to three point one percent or rise by only about one point one percent, reflecting uncertainties including reciprocal tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of a relatively strong Thai baht on price competitiveness.
Officials have underscored the importance of enhancing product quality and moving up the value chain to strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to external pressures.
The contrasting trade outcomes with the United States and China encapsulate Thailand’s broader trade strategy in a complex global environment.
While solid performance in the U.S. market has reinforced economic ties and supported export growth, the persistent deficit with China and looming external headwinds underscore the need for adaptive policy responses and strategic diversification to sustain Thailand’s export-led growth trajectory.
