As the US-China trade war is expected to intensify with the approaching US presidential election, Thailand's economy may benefit significantly.

According to Kasikorn Research Centre's latest analysis, the escalation of trade conflicts will likely compel Chinese manufacturers to relocate production bases away from the mainland.

Thailand appears to be a favorable destination for such shifts in seven key industries: semiconductors, solar panels, digital camera parts, medical and rubber gloves, TV peripherals, printed circuit assembly, and toys.

Regardless of the election outcome between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, both candidates have proposed increasing taxes on Chinese-made goods.

Harris plans to raise tariffs on strategic products, while Trump aims for a comprehensive tariff increase and a 100% tax penalty on countries that abandon pegging their currency to the US dollar basket.

Historically, Trump applied the Unfair Trade Practice Section 301 in 2018 to impose a 25% tariff on various Chinese products, including midstream goods such as hard drives, rubber tyres, auto parts, and smartphone components.

As these tensions grow, Thailand's industrial sector stands to profit from the potential influx of Chinese manufacturing operations.