Vietnam’s Rapid Growth Sets Stage to Outpace Thailand as GDP Momentum Builds
Strong expansion in Vietnam’s economy raises prospect of surpassing Thailand’s output amid diverging growth forecasts for 2026
Vietnam’s economy is projected to accelerate sharply in 2026, raising expectations that its gross domestic product could surpass Thailand’s if current trends persist, according to the latest forecasts and economic indicators.
Both the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predict Vietnam will lead the Asia-Pacific region in GDP growth next year, with expansion rates well above those expected for Thailand.
The World Bank’s latest ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow by around six point three percent in 2026, the highest pace among major economies in East Asia and the Pacific and well above Thailand’s projected five point one percent for the same period.
Vietnam’s robust performance is attributed to strong export demand, resilient domestic consumption and continuing foreign direct investment inflows.
Separately, the OECD has revised its outlook for Vietnam’s economic expansion, raising the forecast for 2026 to approximately six point two percent, a reflection of sustained macroeconomic stability and dynamic domestic activity.
These growth rates contrast with Thailand’s more modest outlook, where recent central bank projections indicate expansion closer to the lower end of the regional range.
Beyond headline figures, momentum in Vietnam’s real economy has been notable.
National data show that GDP expanded strongly in 2025, with third-quarter growth exceeding eight percent year-on-year, underscoring the depth of the country’s expansion as it solidifies its position as a key manufacturing and export hub.
In contrast, Thailand’s economy has shown more moderate performance, with mixed signals from investment, consumption and external trade.
Recent reporting from Thailand’s central bank anticipates slower growth in 2026, reflecting pressures from global trade dynamics and structural constraints that have tempered domestic momentum.
While Vietnam has not yet overtaken Thailand in absolute GDP size, analysts note that if growth differentials persist — with Vietnam significantly outpacing Thailand year after year — the gap in economic output could narrow and ultimately reverse over the coming years.
Such a shift would mark a major milestone in Southeast Asia’s economic landscape, reflecting structural transformations in both countries’ growth trajectories.
Both the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predict Vietnam will lead the Asia-Pacific region in GDP growth next year, with expansion rates well above those expected for Thailand.
The World Bank’s latest ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow by around six point three percent in 2026, the highest pace among major economies in East Asia and the Pacific and well above Thailand’s projected five point one percent for the same period.
Vietnam’s robust performance is attributed to strong export demand, resilient domestic consumption and continuing foreign direct investment inflows.
Separately, the OECD has revised its outlook for Vietnam’s economic expansion, raising the forecast for 2026 to approximately six point two percent, a reflection of sustained macroeconomic stability and dynamic domestic activity.
These growth rates contrast with Thailand’s more modest outlook, where recent central bank projections indicate expansion closer to the lower end of the regional range.
Beyond headline figures, momentum in Vietnam’s real economy has been notable.
National data show that GDP expanded strongly in 2025, with third-quarter growth exceeding eight percent year-on-year, underscoring the depth of the country’s expansion as it solidifies its position as a key manufacturing and export hub.
In contrast, Thailand’s economy has shown more moderate performance, with mixed signals from investment, consumption and external trade.
Recent reporting from Thailand’s central bank anticipates slower growth in 2026, reflecting pressures from global trade dynamics and structural constraints that have tempered domestic momentum.
While Vietnam has not yet overtaken Thailand in absolute GDP size, analysts note that if growth differentials persist — with Vietnam significantly outpacing Thailand year after year — the gap in economic output could narrow and ultimately reverse over the coming years.
Such a shift would mark a major milestone in Southeast Asia’s economic landscape, reflecting structural transformations in both countries’ growth trajectories.
