Thailand’s Export Growth Seen Moderating to Between Two and Four Per Cent in 2026
National Shippers’ Council forecasts slower export expansion next year after strong 2025 performance, citing foreign investment as a key driver
Thailand’s merchandise exports are expected to rise modestly in 2026, with growth of between two and four per cent projected by the National Shippers’ Council, reflecting a moderation from robust gains recorded in the previous year.
The council’s outlook, presented at a news briefing in Bangkok on Monday, signals a slower pace of external demand and structural shifts within the export sector as global markets cool.
Exports were a major pillar of Thailand’s economic recovery in 2025, driven by a remarkable year-on-year rise of 12.6 per cent over the first eleven months and the council’s upward revision of full-year growth to more than nine per cent from an earlier forecast of five per cent.
Despite that strong performance, the projection for 2026 reflects a combination of external and internal influences.
According to the council’s chairman, Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, much of the expected growth next year will originate from foreign-owned firms operating in Thailand rather than a broad upswing among domestic exporters, a trend that underscores competitive pressures at home.
The shippers’ group also noted that shipments of rice, a traditional export mainstay, are likely to slow in the coming year after contributing to overall gains in 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand’s own outlook presents a more cautious scenario, forecasting only marginal export expansion of around 0.6 per cent for 2026, pointing to persistent headwinds for Thailand’s trade outlook.
Broader macroeconomic challenges — including an appreciating currency, geopolitical trade risks and subdued global demand — have led economists to temper expectations for the export-led segment of the economy.
As Thailand navigates the transitional phase between post-pandemic strength and a more subdued growth trajectory abroad, policymakers and industry stakeholders are paying close attention to diversification strategies and enhancing export competitiveness.
The estimated moderation in export growth next year highlights both the resilience of the Thai economy and the need for continued structural reforms to sustain export momentum.
The council’s outlook, presented at a news briefing in Bangkok on Monday, signals a slower pace of external demand and structural shifts within the export sector as global markets cool.
Exports were a major pillar of Thailand’s economic recovery in 2025, driven by a remarkable year-on-year rise of 12.6 per cent over the first eleven months and the council’s upward revision of full-year growth to more than nine per cent from an earlier forecast of five per cent.
Despite that strong performance, the projection for 2026 reflects a combination of external and internal influences.
According to the council’s chairman, Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, much of the expected growth next year will originate from foreign-owned firms operating in Thailand rather than a broad upswing among domestic exporters, a trend that underscores competitive pressures at home.
The shippers’ group also noted that shipments of rice, a traditional export mainstay, are likely to slow in the coming year after contributing to overall gains in 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand’s own outlook presents a more cautious scenario, forecasting only marginal export expansion of around 0.6 per cent for 2026, pointing to persistent headwinds for Thailand’s trade outlook.
Broader macroeconomic challenges — including an appreciating currency, geopolitical trade risks and subdued global demand — have led economists to temper expectations for the export-led segment of the economy.
As Thailand navigates the transitional phase between post-pandemic strength and a more subdued growth trajectory abroad, policymakers and industry stakeholders are paying close attention to diversification strategies and enhancing export competitiveness.
The estimated moderation in export growth next year highlights both the resilience of the Thai economy and the need for continued structural reforms to sustain export momentum.
